Put a number on what your organic traffic is worth
Enter your keywords, your current positions and where you intend to rank. The estimator prices the gap two ways: what those clicks would cost to buy from Google, and what they are worth in pipeline.
| Clicks / mo | Value / mo | |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial-intent terms | 1,840 | $22.1k |
| Comparison and alternatives | 620 | $9.8k |
| Informational guides | 4,310 | $6.5k |
Informational content drives most of your clicks and the least of your value. The commercial terms are worth six times more per visit, and you rank for a fraction of them.
Why this tool exists
SEO budgets are approved by people who think in cost per acquisition and payback periods. SEO reports arrive full of rankings, impressions and domain authority. The two never meet, so the programme that would have compounded for years gets cut in the quarter that budget gets tight.
The usual response is to quote a traffic number, which persuades nobody, or to multiply every keyword by position-one click-through, which produces a number so obviously inflated that it damages the case it was meant to support. Neither accounts for the fact that AI Overviews and ad blocks have measurably reduced how many people click the organic results at all.
This estimator uses a published click-through curve by position, applies a SERP-feature modifier for AI Overviews and ad-heavy results, and then values the resulting clicks both as media you would otherwise buy and as pipeline you would otherwise miss. The output is a business case, not a traffic forecast.
- The media-equivalent value of the traffic you already have and the traffic you are targeting
- Incremental clicks, leads, customers and revenue between your current and target positions
- A per-keyword ranking of where the opportunity actually sits
- Break-even month and effective cost per organic click across the first year
- A downloadable model you can attach to a budget request
Who it's for
Anyone who has to defend an SEO investment to somebody holding the budget.
Need to express ranking gains in currency rather than positions.
Need to weigh an SEO programme against a paid budget on equal terms.
Need to know whether organic is worth the wait at their stage.
Need a credible forecast to justify a retainer without overpromising.
Need to prioritise which pages to build or refresh first.
Need a break-even month before signing off a twelve-month programme.
Need to compare organic category pages against shopping ad spend.
Need to value high-CPC commercial terms they cannot afford to keep buying.
How it works
Editable table in, business case out.
Volume, current position, target position and CPC for each
Clean results, ad-heavy, or AI Overview present
Visitor to lead, lead to customer, and average order value
Media value, pipeline value, break-even month and per-keyword priority
Volume, current position, target position and CPC for each
Clean results, ad-heavy, or AI Overview present
Visitor to lead, lead to customer, and average order value
Media value, pipeline value, break-even month and per-keyword priority
Features
Built to survive scrutiny from someone who does not want to fund SEO.
Position-by-position click curve
Conservative mid-points from the public 2024–2025 click studies, not a single vendor's flattering dataset.
AI Overview adjustment
Four SERP profiles apply a click suppression factor, because an AI Overview above your result changes the maths materially.
Dual valuation
Every keyword valued both as media you would otherwise buy and as revenue you would otherwise miss.
Opportunity ranking
Keywords sorted by incremental value, so the build order is decided by money rather than by search volume.
S-curve ramp modelling
Rankings arrive slowly, then quickly, then flatten. The projection reflects that instead of assuming a straight line.
Full CSV export
Per-keyword detail plus the summary, ready for a spreadsheet or a deck.
What you'll get
A complete case for or against the investment.
What the same clicks would cost in the paid auction.
Additional pipeline between current and target positions.
Return against your stated monthly investment.
When cumulative gross profit overtakes cumulative cost.
Incremental clicks and value for every term, ranked.
What you actually pay per organic click in year one, versus paid CPC.
See it in action
PreviewThe estimator is live at the top of this page, pre-loaded with an example set.
| Clicks / mo | Value / mo | |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial-intent terms | 1,840 | $22.1k |
| Comparison and alternatives | 620 | $9.8k |
| Informational guides | 4,310 | $6.5k |
Informational content drives most of your clicks and the least of your value. The commercial terms are worth six times more per visit, and you rank for a fraction of them.
Why it changes the conversation
A position-four ranking means nothing to a CFO. The monthly value of the clicks it produces means everything.
The highest-volume keyword is rarely the highest-value one. This shows which is which before you commission the content.
Switching the SERP profile shows exactly how much of the opportunity AI answers have taken, which is a number most SEO forecasts still ignore.
Conservative click assumptions and visible formulas mean the case holds up when someone tries to pick it apart.
Use cases
Where the estimator earns its keep.
Paid search costs are rising faster than pipeline is growing.
Enter the commercial terms currently being bought, with real CPCs from the ad account.
A media-equivalent figure that usually dwarfs the SEO retainer, plus a break-even month that makes the switch fundable.
Forty candidate topics and budget for eight.
Load all forty with realistic target positions and let the opportunity ranking sort them.
A build order defended by value per keyword rather than by whoever argued hardest.
Client wants a forecast but distrusts SEO promises.
Model conservative target positions and share the scenario link with the assumptions visible.
A forecast the client can stress-test themselves, which is why they believe it.
Twelve months into a programme with rankings up but revenue attribution unclear.
Enter current positions as the baseline and model the next realistic step.
A clear answer on whether the remaining opportunity justifies continuing at the current spend.
The data behind the estimate
The click-through curve is the heart of this tool, and it is where most traffic estimators go wrong. Public studies disagree by several percentage points at position one and converge below position five. This estimator uses conservative mid-points rather than any single source, because an estimate that oversells is worse than no estimate at all, because it costs you credibility the first time reality falls short.
On top of the base curve sits a SERP-feature modifier. An AI Overview occupying the top of the results measurably reduces clicks to the organic links beneath it, and an ad-heavy commercial result does the same. The four profiles apply reductions from zero to just over half, so you can see how much of your opportunity depends on the shape of the results page rather than on your ranking.
The ramp is modelled as a logistic curve rather than a straight line, because that is how ranking movement actually behaves once indexing and authority effects begin to compound: slow for the first third, steep through the middle, asymptotic at the end.
Every assumption leans low. A forecast you beat builds trust; one you miss costs the programme its budget.
Organic clicks are worth at least what you would pay for them, and usually more, because they persist after the spend stops.
Every number traces back to an input you controlled. Change a cell and watch the whole model move.
Frequently asked questions
Related resources
The reasoning and the next steps.
Stop reporting rankings. Start reporting value.
Fifteen minutes with your keyword list produces a business case that survives the budget meeting, and tells you honestly if there isn't one.